StackWars: Dependency Mapping for Southeast Asia
Stack Autonomy Score: ● = approx. 20% local sovereignty across infrastructure layers. 5 dots = full digital independence. 1 dot = effective foreign-stack capture.
Status: INTERNAL BRIEF – UNVERIFIED SIGNAL INTEL
Node: DEEPVECTOR / FUTURES LAB / STACK OPS
Every API call is a strategic compromise.
Every foreign cloud token is a deferred veto.
Welcome to the age of sovereign stack conflict.
“StackWars” refers to the geotechnical struggle over cloud infrastructure, AI services, and hardware-software dependencies. This brief isolates Southeast Asia—a region trapped between overlapping spheres of digital gravity: the U.S.-aligned cloud ecosystem and the emergent Chinese techno-core.
This mapping exercise scores select states based on their external stack dependencies—how much of their critical infrastructure, data flow, and service logic is subject to foreign control or disruption.
Regional Stack Dependency Index (RSDI)
| Nation | US Cloud Dependency | CN Cloud/Infra Dependency | Stack Autonomy Score | Primary Risk Vector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 62% | 21% | ●●○○○ | API key chokepoints (AWS/GCP) |
| Indonesia | 54% | 32% | ●●○○○ | AI stack import dependency |
| Malaysia | 48% | 39% | ●●●○○ | Cross-cloud data sovereignty |
| Thailand | 59% | 29% | ●●○○○ | Critical comms routed via Google CDN |
| Philippines | 66% | 19% | ●○○○○ | Full-stack lock-in (MS Azure/AWS) |
| Singapore | 45% | 42% | ●●●○○ | Strategic ambiguity; dual-vendor ops |
| Cambodia | 22% | 58% | ●○○○○ | CN surveillance stack embed |
| Myanmar | 19% | 64% | ●○○○○ | CN-controlled telco + AI comms stack |
Stack Autonomy Score: ● = approx. 20% local sovereignty across infrastructure layers. 5 dots = full digital independence. 1 dot = effective foreign-stack capture.
Signal Notes:
- “US-aligned” includes AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Oracle, Palantir frameworks, OpenAI APIs.
- “CN-aligned” includes Alibaba Cloud, Tencent AI, Baidu LLM services, Huawei telco stack, and Zhongguancun-adjacent infra services.
- Local “sovereign stack” development is underway in Vietnam and Singapore, but remains dependent on foreign toolchains.
Tactical Forecast:
- Stack conflict = next trade war theater.
- A single API pricing shift or export restriction could destabilize digital operations at the national level.
- Future flashpoints: AI-hosted elections, cross-border LLM manipulations, CDN blackouts.
Suggested Simulation Extension:
Deploy StackWars:SEA scenario sim:
“What happens when AWS revokes access in the middle of an anti-corruption election cycle?”
“What happens when Baidu LLMs output disinfo at state scale?”
Next Report:/futures-lab/stackwars/latam → Under Compilation
Signal Integrity: 0.87
Version: v0.1 // Issued: 17 APR 2025 // Analyst Node: ███