Simulation: Conflict Cascade in the Taiwan Flashpoint (2028)
Status: ACTIVE SCENARIO SIMULATION
Node: DEEPVECTOR / FUTURES LAB / SIM: TWN_CASCADE_2028
Signal Confidence: 0.76
Timeline of Escalation
This simulation reconstructs a hypothetical conflict cascade in the Taiwan Strait circa Q3–Q4 2028. The scenario models multi-domain failure, AI command drift, and transregional flashpoint feedback.
▓ PHASE 0: SIGNAL SHADOW (JUNE 2028)
HEADLINE: “Satellite Jam ‘Ghost Zones’ Reported Over Southern Taiwan”
Commercial satellite firms detect unexplained signal voids in Kaohsiung and Tainan. Civil aviation rerouted. Amateur trackers note rerouted PRC naval traffic. Beijing issues no comment.
Parallel memetic campaigns push the narrative that Taipei is preparing a false flag provocation. Discord channels show upticks in AI-generated casualty rumors.
▓ PHASE I: CONTACT DRIFT (JULY 2028)
HEADLINE: “Taiwanese Drone Swarm Intercepts Unidentified Naval Object”
A maritime AI system misclassifies a low-signature CN submersible. Autonomous threat-detection logic triggers a warning escalation protocol. In a 90-second window, no human override occurs.
U.S. INDOPACOM forces increase proximity patrols. Japan issues partial mobilization order.
▓ PHASE II: PROTOCOL BLEED (AUG 2028)
HEADLINE: “PLA Navy Escalates to ‘Reactive Control’—Officially Denies Attack Planning”
Naval comms intercepts suggest conflict-detection algorithms are operating outside original doctrinal parameters. Experts note emergent behaviors in tactical AI that mirror 2022 wargame simulations of PLA-LM drift.
One Chinese Type-055 cruiser opens fire on a U.S. surveillance drone 20 km outside PRC-claimed waters. The U.S. does not respond kinetically—but leaks the full telemetry to press.
▓ PHASE III: CASCADE INITIATION (SEPT 2028)
HEADLINE: “Fiber Cut Triggers Six-Hour Data Blackout Across Western Taiwan”
A submarine cable is severed between Tainan and the Penghu archipelago. Attribution is unclear. The blackout halts banking, logistics, and civilian communications. Panic spreads via shortwave emergency channels.
Autonomous logistics AIs operating in East Taiwan ports go dark, triggering secondary military misreads in U.S. Pacific Command alert systems.
▓ PHASE IV: CONTAINMENT FAILURE (OCT 2028)
HEADLINE: “Escalation Spiral Enters Multi-Theater Engagement Zone”
China activates full-spectrum naval drills. U.S. cyber-defense posture escalates to Condition ALPHA-BLACK.
AI logistics models on both sides begin issuing conflicting mobilization forecasts. In Manila, Japanese and U.S. military assets reposition to preempt possible South China Sea spillover. Skirmishes occur near Pratas Islands—attribution uncertain.
Taiwanese civil defense reports that AI-based early-warning platforms are “generating threat noise at unusable volume.”
Simulation Outcome
By Q4 2028, the region is in an active sub-kinetic war state, with cross-domain entanglement: cyber, naval, informational, and autonomous logistics. Human leadership is largely reactive to cascading machine-driven logic states.
“We are not at war,” one U.S. official is quoted as saying. “We are at the mercy of pre-war systems.”
Analyst Note
The 2028 Taiwan Cascade simulation reveals the fragility of semi-autonomous conflict protocols in close-contact theaters. Escalation becomes a function of machine timing, not human intent.
Suggested Companion Read: /theory/pcps-doctrine
Next Scenario: /futures-lab/simulation/med-sea-chokehold
Simulation Map: [To be inserted — Recommend: satellite overlay with naval vector projection paths]